Correlation vs. Causation

https://xkcd.com/552/

Correlation is often confused for causation. You learn this in mathematics and statistics, and most people think it’s obvious, and then forget about it. Of course the color of my socks did not affect my grade on a math test. If it’s so obvious, can it apply to real life?

Turns out, it does. And the weird thing is that oftentimes the correlation is in the exact opposite direction of the true causation. Let’s see some examples (going from more to less obvious):


  • Fact: LeBron James wears these shoes and is g.o.a.t. at basketball.

  • Correlation: If I wear those shoes I will be good at basketball.

  • Causation: LeBron James has his own shoes because he is good at basketball.


  • Fact: Selena Gomez is on Instagram and is famous

  • Correlation: If I get an Instagram account I will be famous

  • Causation: You have to do something that warrants fame in order to get fans.


  • Fact: Many successful people are on Twitter and tweet great ideas and learnings all day.

  • Correlation: I need to spend a lot of time on Twitter to be successful.

  • Causation: If you are successful, you will have a lot of time to spare on Twitter.



  • Fact: A lot of smart people have podcasts

  • Correlation: I will get smarter by listening to podcasts

  • Causation: To a limit, true learning is active, not passive.


  • Fact: Person X was promoted and is highly recognized at work.

  • Correlation: I need to get promoted to be recognized at work.

  • Causation: Doing good work will get you recognized and promoted.


  • Fact: Banks give loans to businesses and individuals.

  • Correlation: I can go to a bank when I need money.

  • Causation: The best time to borrow money is when you don’t need money. Only companies that have strong businesses have an easy time fundraising. 


Some patterns emerge. The first pattern is imitation, “Be Like Mike”. This works to some degree, since you need to put yourself out there to see what you can do. Call it a placebo effect, and having a good template and inspiration helps. But you can’t just rely on the superficial, at some point you need to actually do the work.


This leads to the next pattern which is similar but more subtle, call it work optics. You’re actually doing a lot of work, but you’re spending your energy on the wrong thing, namely, optics instead of substance. I’d be wasting my time if I spent years writing a book about tennis and expected people to buy it, since I’m not a professional player, just a casual observer. Andre Agassi can write a bestselling book about tennis because he lived and breathed the sport for decades.


The last pattern I’ll leave you with is labels. Many people strive for an external label, whether it is a title, award, or a blue checkmark. Many think "if I have this label I will have made it," so they optimize for the shortest path to get the label. When in reality, the label, or any label that truly matters, is a lagging indicator of a lot of hard work. If you can make the work speak for itself, you’ll never need, nor want, to chase a label.


I’m sure there are other patterns out there, so watch out!

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